By Michel Racine, Tamra Quintel, Richard Hart
The Department of Defense is planning to close bases around the world to make the US military more mobile and better suited to respond to the War on Terror. These changes are projected to save some 48 billion dollars in the next twenty years--big words and big numbers that will affect every state and touch hundreds of communities, including Colorado Springs.
The BRAC report (Base Realignment and Closure) recommends closure for a whopping 180 military installations around the world, most of them in the US. The good news for the Springs is that none of the bases in the area are on the "close list"; to the contrary, we are heading for a significant expansion. Based on the BRAC report, we can expect gains in military and civilian jobs to most of our bases: the US Air Force Academy loses a handful, but Schriever AFB increases by 95, Peterson AFB by 510, and Fort Carson gains 4,377 more jobs. Furthermore, last September (months before the BRAC report was submitted) the Defense Department announced that the 2nd Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division would be stationed at Fort Carson, a move away from Korea. Between the 3,700 soldiers from the 2nd Brigade, and the base relocation of over 4,000, we expect at least 7,700 new faces at Carson very soon. Of course, the BRAC recommendations are not official yet, not until later this fall, but explosive growth seems inevitable.
Granted, this influx of people poses some important considerations. For example, the number of soldiers to be relocated to Fort Carson is changing faster than the newspapers can print: one recent statistic shows that troop growth in the near future might soar to 12,000, possibly increasing the total population (including dependants) by nearly 30,000 in the Springs area. Many think we should be wary of the expense, confusion, and inconvenience involved in restructuring our roads, not to mention other expansion and development costs that will certainly reshape an already protean community that ruins the risk of losing any sort of sincere identity, and the increased dependence we will have on the military certainly disturbs a significant portion of the populace. Yet while these are interesting concerns, in a broader sense they should be considered moot, at least for now. Our local economy, job and housing markets included, is in such a sorry condition that the community has to grow, and grow quickly. We can celebrate if we want, but a sigh of relief is more appropriate. Let's face it: we need the military more than they need a new Starbuck's and the pretty view from the summit of Pikes Peak.
Recent economic woes, including the high-tech bust and the 9/11 attacks, have cost local firms 10,000 jobs between 2001 and 2003. The current unemployment rate is about 5.8% and decreasing very slowly. The defense spending in the area contributes (directly and indirectly) to 34% of our local economy, and it has for a long time. The military related jobs have not changed much in the last decade, staying fairly constant and protecting us from rapid changes in the economy, a safety buffer against the worst. There will be new jobs with the relocation, both military and civilian. Fort Carson is by far the biggest contributor, with over 17,000 jobs out of the 34,000 the military bases employ today, and that will grow. However, we cannot make the mistake of diminishing the impact of the other military installations around us: the loss of any of our bases would result in dire consequences to our economy, and we should be relieved to know the BRAC report is not planning to close any bases around Colorado Springs. The new jobs created by the influx of military personnel will at first be filled by the unemployed people already in the area, people who have lost their jobs in the recession but stayed in Colorado Springs. The region will come back from what was lost, but not create positive in-migration jobs just yet.
Besides the job market, the rental housing business suffered greatly with the recession we faced. To aggravate the situation, 12,000 soldiers from Fort Carson were deployed to Iraq in 2003, the largest deployment since World War II. The various deployments create a huge void in the rental market. With an average of 12.6% of rental vacancy (Denver is at 9.3%), and with new building projects completing this year, we have a large surplus of apartments, which results in a weak market. The south end of town, closer to Fort Carson, has much higher-than-average vacancy rates: Southeast 15%, Fountain/Security 23.2%, and Southwest 15% (1st quarter 2005). If we only consider the 3,700 of the 2nd Brigade and the base relocation of 4,000 soldiers, we will absorb our rental surplus by late 2008, requiring new projects for housing to start in 2007. We have approximately 2 years worth of surplus housing that the military influx can absorb, a surplus the current slow economic growth cannot fill in the near future. The increased population will help, but further deployments in Iraq are planned. With 8,000 troops already on their way and another 3,600 troops to be deployed by fall 2005, the absorption rate may not be as rapid as some would like, reinforcing the need for the relocation and the increased military population at Fort Carson.
New jobs and lower vacancy rates come with risk. We need to consider the impact of a spontaneous growth on our infrastructures, where mismanagement could cost us more money than we can afford. The "State Referendum D" was approved last November for various state-wide expanses, including $1.2 billion for road projects. Between the COSMIX project and other road improvements, Colorado Springs is planning to spend $185 million of that pie, which may not be enough. Our local politicians are already asking for money from the Defense Department for work directly related to the Fort Carson expansion, at least $10 million. Officials say they need a total of $50 million for improvements at Interstate 25 and State Highway 16 to accommodate the new arrivals at Fort Carson, more money than was planned originally. Traffic around Carson is already a problem, and it will get worse. A sense of panic is beginning to saturate the news, as well as a sense of uncertainty, which is never good. The budget for road projects is shifting, the number of incoming soldiers is increasing (rumors or facts, it's not clear), and we are already knee deep in other projects like COSMIX. And moreover, the BRAC recommendations will only be approved this fall (pending other delays of course), adding to the uncertainty and the difficulty of planning such an increase in population.
Since September 2004, there have been signs that Fort Carson is in the safe zone with the military realignment initiative. Between the decision (last fall) to bring the 2nd Brigade to Carson, and the current BRAC recommendations, we have evidence that the Defense Department will not only keep Fort Carson open, it will also expand the base. In addition to creating new jobs and a hotter rental market, the military plans to spend over a billion dollars in improvements at Fort Carson. The military spending to improve the base will add even more to the inevitable local economic boom. Some may suggest that Colorado Springs is being rewarded by the Bush administration for being far right, but others point out that the soldiers really enjoy the area and consider it one of the best places to be posted. Whatever the underlying reasons, Carson is getting a good deal, and whatever risk the deal brings, we should be relieved our bases will be spared and favored for expansion. Not because it's the greatest news ever, but because we need it so much we don't seem to have a choice.
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